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  1. It begins with the national population growth predictions for England.

  2. These are then translated to local ‘sub-regional household growth’ numbers (available online from DLUHC). These disperse future household growth  across the country giving higher numbers to those local authorities that have been ‘hot spots’ for people moving there in the past.

  3. A ‘baseline housing need’ is thus calculated for each local planning authority over a ten year period; for many rural areas this is high.

  4. .An algorithm is applied to the baseline. This is to increase the figures in unaffordable local authorities although there can be a ‘cap’ on numbers, eg. if nationally protected countryside are involved.

  5. Then – since 2020 – a 35% uplift is then applied for those urban local authorities in the top 20 cities, although it does not appear that there is a consequent reduction in more rural places. 

6.Now comes the Local Plan. The Local Plan must find enough reliable sites for ‘housing need’. There is a ‘call for sites’ by the local authority and promotors and developers come forward with land to build on.  

7.There follows the ‘site selection process’, carried out as described in national planning policy (PPG) under ‘Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment’. Public transport is hardly if ever in the picture.

8.As part of land promotion, developers do master-planning and marketing, demonstrating how adverse environmental effects can be ‘mitigated’ and how local facilities and new road capacity in particular, might be financed. 

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